Running dOrg taught me how inefficient collective decisions can be: in an organization where nobody can simply decide, every choice turns into a proposal, a discussion and a vote. Decision markets are the most elegant answer I've found to that problem, a way to pool what people actually know by letting them profit from being right.
Prediction Prophet
In 2024 I led the Prediction Prophet project with Gnosis, an onchain agent made to trade on their prediction market, Omen. The vision was for agents like it to lower the liquidity needed to incentivize an accurate market, so that GnosisDAO and others could use them for a long tail of decision markets.
GitHubProphet forecasts the way an analyst would: it researches the question across the web, writes up the evidence it finds, and only then commits to a probability and a bet. Gnosis ran benchmarks that set prediction agents against each other on live markets, and Prophet stayed at the top of the leaderboard for years.
Mechanisms for prediction markets
At the Mechanism Institute we wrote up how onchain prediction markets work, taking Polymarket apart as the case, where their designs fall short on liquidity, and what they could do beyond betting.
Mechanism Institute